Russian threats to the UK highlight the Kremlin’s neuralgia about Ukraine’s drone campaign.
The UK media has reported that Ukraine is using jet-powered drones from the UK in its campaign against Russia. In response, the Russian embassy in London has said that the UK “will pay”. “London’s actions will inevitably carry consequences for which it will have to answer”, the embassy writes. The deeper the UK’s involvement, “the higher the price it will pay”. The UK, the embassy says, is “deliberately opting for an escalation of the Ukraine crisis”.
Russian hypocrisy
To assess the degree of hypocrisy in the Russian embassy’s comments, it’s helpful to go back to basics. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. Russia’s aggression included, and continues to include, massive destruction of cities across Ukraine, with immense civilian casualties that have escalated this year. Huge Russian aerial assaults continue on Ukrainian cities. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, both Russians and Ukrainians lived in peace.
It’s also worth remembering that Russia often uses weapons from its allies to attack Ukraine, such as Iranian drones and North Korean ballistic missiles. Russia has also used North Korean ground troops to help its war against Ukraine.
Russian threats to the UK: what’s going on?
There’s no suggestion that the reported UK drones are game-changers. The overwhelming majority of Ukraine’s attacks use home-grown weapons such as the Flamingo cruise missile. Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb in 2025, using drones hidden in lorries, attacked Russian military aircraft as far away as eastern Siberia.
The strong Russian reaction, and threats, come not because the UK’s supply of weapons is particularly significant militarily, but because the war is going badly for Russia.
President Putin hates and fears Ukraine being able to defend itself against Russia’s invasion and ceaseless aerial attacks. This is because Putin relies on a sense of normality in Russia’s biggest cities – particularly Moscow and St Petersburg – to maintain his grip on power as he rules Russia in an increasingly authoritarian way. Ukrainian long-range drone attacks threaten that, by:
- bringing the war home to Russians, including in those cities;
- damaging the Russian economy; and
- damaging Russia’s war effort.
Russians are used to bad government. But everyone has their limits
Putin is neuralgic about Ukraine’s drone campaign
The result of Ukraine’s drone campaign has been to fuel increasing opposition to, and doubt about, the war amongst Russians. Putin knows that if attacks continue, or if he has to mobilise Russians in large cities, that opposition will grow further. The obvious and damaging drone campaign unsettles President Putin on multiple fronts. Hence the Russian threats to the UK.
Could increasing dissent in Russia topple Putin?
The fear of losing power remains Putin’s main preoccupation. If he were ever to lose power, the implications for him personally could be profound. The reason he invaded Ukraine in 2014 was because he feared democracy from a successful Ukraine could seep into Russia, threatening his position.
I wouldn’t exaggerate risk of Putin being toppled. He has spent 25 years trying to make that as difficult as possible. He is surrounded by yes-men, who occupy positions of privilege by their fealty. No obvious challenger is visible.
But recent months have seen interesting developments.
- We have seen a face-to-face call by President Tokayev of Kazakhstan for Putin to end the war;
- protests in Russia against economic challenges, fuel shortages and internet cut-offs are growing; and
- elite Russian voices opposing the war are becoming more audible. It’s dangerous for Russians to criticise the war. But there were interesting reports this week about the chief economist at the state-controlled VEB bank, Andrei Klepach, being fired. His crime was to warn, in a closed speech in May, that Russia would not win a prolonged economic war with Ukraine. Klepach said pressures on Russia’s economy due to the war would inevitably lead to a “social crisis” that would erupt “when no one particularly expects it”.
No wonder Putin is worried.
What happens next?
As I said in my 29 July Ukraine-Russia update, a grinding war of attrition continues to look the likeliest medium-term outcome unless one side or the other suddenly collapses. Putin will continue to attempt to project strength. But the Russian president is looking weaker than he has at any point since the start of the war in 2014.
