President Trump’s envoys seem unlikely to bring about progress in their early-September talks in Moscow and Kyiv. I hope I’m 100% wrong.
US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are undertaking a round of peace negotiations in Moscow and Kyiv. Progress seems unlikely.
The good news
First, the good news. This is the first time that Witkoff and Kushner have visited Kyiv, so far as I know, since President Trump resumed office in January 2025. It is great that someone has now informed them where Ukraine is. It is excellent that they have now held a meeting with President Zelensky of Ukraine – although the body language of Jonathan Powell, the UK national security adviser, in this BBC report is not encouraging.
The fact President Putin supports keeping Lenin’s body on display in this Moscow Mausoleum tells you a lot about Putin’s priorities.
The bad news
The bad news is that Witkoff and Kushner do not have a great record of international peace negotiations, and particularly not of negotiating with President Putin. We don’t know about their record with Zelensky because they’ve never been to Kyiv before. But to get a sense of Witkoff’s grasp of the issues, check out his interview with Tucker Carlson in March 2025. Starting with Carlson’s fawning introduction, it’s toe-curling from start to finish. Witkoff seems star-struck at having met Putin. He projects extraordinary ignorance about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the history and the geography. He spouts Putin talking points. This is President Trump’s envoy to resolve a war between Russia and Ukraine? Really?
Witkoff has also been involved in negotiations to bring about peace in Gaza, and between the US and Iran. We know how those negotiations have gone.
No wonder the Omani foreign minister is writing despairingly about the importance of real diplomats.
The problem
The problem is that now, as for the entire period since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there is no obvious landing ground for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Ukraine does not want to reward Russia by conceding sovereignty over a single square inch of its territory. Putin, who is 100% responsible for launching this grinding war of attrition, cannot afford to call for peace unless he has achieved something that looks like a clear victory. Otherwise, millions of Russians who have lost loved ones, or their livelihoods, or otherwise suffered since 2014, will ask “who the hell is responsible for this fiasco?” and everyone will know the answer.
Result: there is no sign that Russia is prepared to negotiate over anything other than total Ukrainian capitulation – or even over a cease-fire along the current line of conflict.
The Ukrainians, by contrast, are ready to negotiate, or to declare a cease-fire, now.
It may be that Russia will become readier to negotiate as the level of pain the war causes to ordinary Russians increases over the months and years ahead, and as opposition to the war grows within Russia. At that point, the landing zone for a peace deal may expand to workable dimensions. But I’d be astonished if the current Witkoff-Kushner initiative were to achieve anything.
I don’t often hope I’m completely wrong. But in this case I’ll make an exception.
